Behavioral scientists have long studied how human beings make decisions. There are a number of well known decision traps or fallacies that we all fall into when making decisions. Exploring these in detail is beyond the scope of this page, but there are some key findings that are relevant.

We are overconfident about our understanding (see Game of the Month). We think we are better at guessing or estimating than we are. When asked to make an estimate of how long a project will last, even though we might have a lot of experience, how often are our initial estimates right?

We think that we use the best method to make decisions every time. It turns out that even experts often use different "models" to make actual decisions than they think they do. As an example, we may know that theoretically we should look for three specific symptoms in diagnosing a patient and each symptom has a specified importance compared to the other symptoms; however our experience or attention span may cause us to check other symptoms or place more importance on a lesser symptom than we should. "Well, it is a really bad cough!" We use this incorrect information to formulate an answer.

You may be thinking, "So what? Our experience is often better than the theory?" Harvard Professor Argyris explains that since we are basing the criteria for decision making on our "theories-in-use" rather than our "espoused theories," we are not consistent with what we think we should be doing. Next time I may look for other symptoms and weigh their importance differently, which makes for ineffective decision making. This also complicates learning from our decisions, as the basis for judging the outcomes changes each time.

To add to this, by using our "theories-in-use" and not our "espoused theories," we catch ourselves making decisions we later regret. Have you never thought, "that was dumb, I knew better than that?"

We think that we make rational decisions, independent of the physical, emotional, psychological and spiritual state in which we happen to find ourselves. Not true. We weigh different attributes of the problem depending on their relative importance at the moment. You broke the rules, but today I am in a good mood, the weekend is coming and I like you – well maybe we’ll let it go this one time.

The point is that there are many traps that we humans fall into when making decisions, so we have invented many techniques to help bootstrap our ability to make decisions. These tools strengthen that which humans do well, connecting concepts to develop new ideas, by adding abilities that we lack in, such as computing accuracy and speed, as well as systematic decision making approaches.

Click here to see what we do at the Institute for Strategic Clarity to intervene in this same decision making process to strengthen the decision makers ability to understand and make decisions within complex environments.